Elizabeth A. Leib

by Elizabeth A. Leib

Karl Rove from his new perch on Fox News promoted his Wall Street Journal op-ed today. Even while noting that politics had become “hi-tech with sophisticated databases, the Internet, TV ads, focus groups and polls,” he reached back to Abraham Lincoln’s bid for the White House to establish some fundamentals.

Rove quotes Lincoln as saying to his Whig campaign committee: make a list of voters, figure out who they would vote for, have someone talk to the undecided voters by someone they respect and on Election Day, get them to the polls.

Rove’s analysis:

Obama PROS

*excellent community organizing by energetic supporters

*internet savvy - fundraising and communicating with supporters

*Democrats finally have a single national database (10 years after the GOP!)

Obama CONS

*don’t have breathless college students call undecided voters, who will often be mature adults

*big challenges with blue-collar households, slipping in polls with white women and low Latino support

*to date in key battleground states has 4 states each with a state chairman and 8 without

*stumbling across nomination finish line with major challenges to unite the party

McCain PROS

*does better among Independents and Democrats than any other Republican

*winning 41% of the Hispanic vote to Obama’s 34%

*GOP’s Victory Committee capable of the sophisticated “microtargeted” database and detailed planning

*to date in key battleground states has 9 states each with a state chairman and 3 without

McCain CONS

*in his political history hasn’t shown much regard for organization, seeming dismissive of the arduous mechanics

*has an “enthusiasm deficit” with grassroots GOP activists

*has no grassroots groups to match the Democrats outside of the National Rifle Association and Right to Life

*needs to win the working class voters (Catholic’s in particular0 and older white women

*running in a political environment that favors Democrats

Rove predicts that organization will be the factor that provides the winning margin in the fall. I’ll add that I’m hearing from Republican friends that they’ll stay home before voting for McCain and from some Democrats that they’ll vote for McCain over Obama. Buckle your seatbelts, this is going to be an election for the history books!